Uncertainty wiki (Models for a non-stationary world) [WIP]

πŸ“™Quantifiable Uncertainty (Risk) vs Unquantifiable UncertaintyπŸ‘¨πŸ»β€πŸ¦―Our blindspot: we ignore unquantifiable uncertainty.πŸ’»Quantifying some of that quantifiable uncertainty is still useful🌍Is the world we want to model stationary, at all?πŸ•ΉοΈThe 3 types of modelsπŸ§žβ€β™‚οΈIs optimization an illusion in practice?There are no models without assumptionsThere are no models without assumptionsπŸ’”How about modelling when an existing relationship is likely break?

This is a a reminder for me that world is not as simple and stationary as us, data-informed people want them to be.


  • Where is unquantifiable uncertainty greatly ignored?
  • Where do we assume stationarity, no change, status quo, where that change can have extreme consequences?

I think it could be important in complex, non-deterministic systems, especially where we don’t have a lot of data, and where we need to measure phenomena over time.

  • Economics/finance
  • Social sciences

This started out as a collection of notes of Radical Uncertainty, but since then, I’ve added a lot of parallel/contradicting and my own thoughts.