Uncertainty wiki (Models for a non-stationary world) [WIP]

📙Quantifiable Uncertainty (Risk) vs Unquantifiable Uncertainty 👨🏻‍🦯Our blindspot: we ignore unquantifiable uncertainty.💻Quantifying some of that quantifiable uncertainty is still useful 🌍Is the world we want to model stationary, at all?🕹️The 3 types of models 🧞‍♂️Is optimization an illusion in practice?

There are no models without assumptions 💔How about modelling when an existing relationship is likely break?

This is a a reminder for me that world is not as simple and stationary as us, data-informed people want them to be.

Questions:

Where is unquantifiable uncertainty greatly ignored?
Where do we assume stationarity, no change, status quo, where that change can have extreme consequences?

I think it could be important in complex, non-deterministic systems, especially where we don’t have a lot of data, and where we need to measure phenomena over time.

Economics/finance
Social sciences

This started out as a collection of notes of Radical Uncertainty, but since then, I’ve added a lot of parallel/contradicting and my own thoughts.